Eyes Wide Shut: The Case for a Developing a Corporate Early Warning System

In the Battle of Britain… radar was the eyes of Fighter Command… its effectiveness was greatly enhanced by being only one element of, and integrated into, a sophisticated command and control network which received the raw information of radar plots and rapidly applied it to direct the use of precious resources of pilots and aircraft to the best possible effect.

Courtesy Imperial War Museum, London

GM’s bankruptcy wasn’t a big surprise – it simply represented the nadir in a twenty year decline where the company’s shrinking market share and excessive labor costs had been well publicized.  In contrast, Toyota’s current sudden acceleration disaster seemed to come from out of nowhere.  In January the company was the industry darling, protecting its customers and our environment with safe, reliable vehicles.  Come February, the brand had become toxic, rapidly obliterating billions of dollars of shareholder value with a devastating impact on long-term goodwill.

But, were there really no warning signs?  I think that highly doubtful.  If Toyota is like the companies we work with, the indicators were there, in corporate systems, though probably lying dormant just out of executive visibility.  Imagine if six months ago an astute manager had correctly interpreted them and stakeholders had taken corrective action.

How does an organization develop an early warning system?  As a last resort, it’s easy to find signs of impending trouble in a company’s legal case matter management system.  These systems support corporate legal departments by capturing information about the content and status of the company’s legal case portfolio.  While each case will follow its own trajectory, in the aggregate the litigation for particular conditions will follow identifiable, predictable patterns.

A great example is the litigation trend that followed the auto industry’s introduction of standard passenger airbags.  Shortly after the technology was widely deployed, trends became visible in the product liability litigation that followed.  Tracking these trends, Federal standards were amended and companies introduced second generation (low powered) airbags, weight-based deactivation and instrument panel indicator lights.  They were also better able to plan and budget their legal costs.  Similar data must have been available at Toyota.  Imagine the billions of dollars, not to mention the innocent lives that could have been saved, if only someone had been looking.

But before troubles hit the legal case management system, they are often captured in a variety of other systems used for daily operations.  Great places to look include warranty claim systems and call center systems.  Just as radar provided the ability to foresee and react to threats during the Battle of Britain, wise companies will integrate information from these systems to create corporate early warning systems that will provide executives with the ability to foresee and react to threats on their company, preempting the worst fiascos.

Developing an early warning system doesn’t even have to be expensive.  Companies already own the data.  What’s needed are the critical steps of highlighting trends that predict trouble and making those trends visible in the form of management dashboards and automated alerts.  Start small, but start now – you can always expand later.  Can you imagine the ROI on this relatively small investment?

Create your own early warning system, transforming your call center, warranty and legal expenses from overhead into investments in a valuable strategic asset that can stave off crises before they occur.  It doesn’t take advanced analytics to know that Toyota’s current calamity could have been avoided had they had the foresight to do so.

Give us a call to talk about how an early warning system can help you reduce the risk to your organization.